IG U.S. Taxpayer Portfolio – Global Equity Series F

Portfolio commentary
Q2 2024

Highlights

① IG U.S. Taxpayer Portfolio – Global Equity outperformed its Global Equity peer group over the quarter, net of ETF fees. 

② Outperformance was mainly driven by a higher allocation to equities and a lower allocation to fixed income versus peers.

③ We are looking to further underweight our fixed income position based on our view of global reflationary dynamics, and we seek to allocate to the most attractive countries and sectors within equities.  

Portfolio returns: Q2 2024

Total Return 1M 3M YTD 1YR 3YR 5YR 10YR Since Inc. (Apr 11, 2022)

IG U.S. Taxpayer Portfolio – Global Equity F

1.49

2.69

12.73

19.35

     

9.07

Quartile rankings

3

2

2

2

     

 

Portfolio overview

IG U.S. Taxpayer Portfolio – Global Equity had positive total returns over Q2 2024, outperforming its Global Equity peer group.

Country selection within equities was the primary contributor to performance. Within equities, a higher exposure to U.S. equities versus peers was the primary contributor over the quarter. Preference for Taiwan and lower exposure to France versus a global market cap weighted index was also additive. Within U.S. equity sectors, more exposure to the utilities sector versus the S&P 500 Index was additive to performance, while less exposure to the information technology sector weighed on performance. 

Market overview: AI pushed equity growth while central banks started to pivot

The second quarter continued to be dominated by the growing influence of artificial intelligence, with investors focused on opportunities in AI-enabled businesses and hardware. Additionally, there was a notable shift in monetary policy as some central banks adjusted their interest-rate policies as inflation risks receded.

In Canada, year-over-year inflation dropped to 2.9%, while in the U.S. it fell to 3.3%. Both indicators are trending downward and remain range bound. The Bank of Canada was the first among central banks in the G7 to cut its overnight lending rate, which we view not as a divergence in monetary policy, but rather as a precursor to the U.S. Federal Reserve eventually following suit. The European Union also cut rates modestly, while the Bank of England held rates as-is, for now. In our view, Canada and Europe have an increased risk of an economic slowdown, while U.S. and emerging market (EM) economic conditions appear to be improving. Canadian and international equities may be weighed down by slower economic growth and potentially weaker earnings growth, with limited valuation upside.

Market overview: AI pushed equity growth while central banks started to pivot

Market outlook: Shifting from spring overheating to summer soft-landing.

The macro pendulum continued its shift from spring overheating to summer soft-landing as stocks rose and bond yields fell over recent weeks. The feedback loop between these two scenarios has characterized much of the last year and our expectation remains for this dynamic to continue. While there have been some signs of moderation in pockets of U.S. growth, our indicators suggest that global growth sequentially firmed over the last month and underlying price pressures remained above pre-pandemic levels. Moreover, the latest political developments in France provide further evidence of a shift in voter preferences towards greater fiscal activism. We continue to believe that policymakers will ultimately prioritize sustaining fiscal activism over returning inflation to target, which should provide favourable conditions for our broadly reflationary positioning.

While French geopolitical risk may create some near-term volatility, we believe the most likely outcome will entail a more stimulative fiscal policy stance, which should provide a tailwind to procyclical assets. 

To discuss your investment strategy, speak to your IG Advisor.