Markets, gold and data all moved positive
A week with no new shocks was enough to lift everything; stocks, bonds, gold, crypto, you name it. Almost everything moved higher this week. The catalyst was simple: no new geopolitical shocks, no surprise tariff escalation and a whole bunch of nothing. In a week with a thin data calendar, that was enough to reset risk sentiment.
Gold continued its rally at the same time as the S&P 500. Historically, that combination has been unusual; today, it’s a feature. Both safe-haven demand and risk-asset demand are responding to the same macro backdrop. Policy is loose, liquidity is abundant, and investors are seeking real assets in all forms.
Headlines from Washington and Beijing caused some noise, but markets ultimately shrugged them off. Speculative growth had some buyers, regional banks rebounded, big banks firmed, and consumer cyclicals (those selling non-essential goods and services) joined the upward move.
The market is still rewarding companies that can show actual demand strength, not just AI adjacency. It was a broad rally and a reminder that the path of least resistance is still to go higher when macro news is quiet.
U.S. data added to the tailwind, heading into Thanksgiving. Jobless claims fell to their joint-lowest level since February, durable goods orders beat expectations, and capital goods orders accelerated. The Chicago Purchasing Managers’ Index (a measure of the health of manufacturing) slipped, but even that could not derail the tone. American investors leaned into their national holiday with a modest sigh of relief. Oil traded firmer in the last few days, after a bad Monday, mostly on renewed chatter around Russia-Ukraine negotiations. It was a classic pre-holiday situation: broad buying, lighter volume and an air of “let’s not overthink this”.
Gold continues to behave in ways that challenge old playbooks. It’s outperforming, even as the dollar softens, and its 2025 trading range is now the widest since 1980. The drivers are structural. Central bank buying remains strong and inelastic. ETF flows have stabilized. Positioning has reset. Supply growth is not keeping up with demand. Silver has outpaced gold year-to-date, but gold’s setup is cleaner and more aligned with the overall economic and political environment.
Looking ahead, fresh data on manufacturing and early Q4 activity will arrive next week. The question is whether this week’s bounce has legs, and if in fact the U.S. economy is quietly turning up. We’ll get clarity soon.
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